Recent polling data indicates a shift in the German political landscape. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reached its highest level of support in a recent survey conducted by the Forsa Institute, registering 26 percent – a one-point increase from the previous week. This places the AfD ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), which experienced a one-point decline to 24 percent – their lowest result since the 2021 federal election.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains steady at 13 percent, while the Green Party also gains one point, reaching 13 percent. The Left Party sees a one-point decrease, falling to 11 percent. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) stands at 3 percent, the BSW at 4 percent and other parties collectively garner 6 percent. The proportion of undecided or non-voters has increased to 25 percent.
Regarding perceived political competence, the CDU/CSU still leads with 19 percent, but also experiences a one-point loss in approval. The AfD shows a slight improvement, reaching 12 percent, while the SPD, Greens and Left Party remain at lower levels of 7, 5 and 5 percent respectively. Half of German citizens (50 percent) believe no party is capable of addressing current challenges effectively.
Economic sentiment continues to worsen. Only 14 percent of those surveyed anticipate an improvement in the economic situation – a four-point decrease – while 62 percent expect deterioration, marking the highest level of pessimism this year. The resulting index value stands at -48. Economic issues currently rank among the top three concerns for the public, following the war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict.
Following 100 days in office, approval ratings for CDU leader Friedrich Merz have reached a new low, with only 29 percent expressing satisfaction with his performance – a three-point decrease. Dissatisfaction stands at 67 percent. His performance receives particularly critical assessment in eastern Germany (20 percent approval), compared to 31 percent in the west.
Dissatisfaction is especially pronounced among AfD supporters (95 percent), Left Party supporters (89 percent) and Green Party supporters (77 percent). Even among SPD supporters, criticism outweighs approval with 60 percent. Only CDU/CSU supporters (72 percent) largely maintain their support for Merz.
Despite this, a narrow majority (52 percent) of the population expects the current grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD to remain in power until the end of the legislative period in 2029. 43 percent anticipate an early end to the governing arrangement. Confidence in the coalition’s longevity is highest among CDU/CSU supporters (81 percent), SPD supporters (64 percent) and Green Party supporters (67 percent).
Data collected in summer 2024 showed 60 percent believing the current coalition would endure, despite then-existing political difficulties. In contrast, 74 percent of AfD supporters currently expect the governing arrangement to fail.
The data on party preferences, political competence and economic expectations was gathered between August 5th and 11th, based on a survey of 2,505 respondents. Data regarding satisfaction with Merz and the expected duration of the governing coalition was collected between August 8th and 11th, from a sample of 1,001 individuals.
