Panama City – Industry analyst Judy Ganes anticipates German consumers will not experience price reductions despite recently imposed United States tariffs on Brazilian coffee. Speaking to Der Spiegel, Ganes, head of J Ganes Consulting, stated that Germany will not benefit from the tariffs levied by the U.S.
She expects increased shipments of Brazilian coffee to Europe, but believes European importers will primarily absorb the excess supply through storage, limiting any immediate impact on retail pricing. Any effect, she suggests, would likely be short-lived.
Ganes forecasts a potential reversal of the tariffs by President Donald Trump, mirroring a recent decision regarding orange juice. She cites Trump’s negotiating style, but expresses confidence that pragmatic considerations will prevail, predicting a decision within days. The analyst notes significant pressure from both consumers and producers, given already elevated coffee prices.
Currently, coffee shipments unaffected by the 50% tariff are still reaching the United States, as the tariffs apply only to goods leaving Brazilian ports after August 6th, creating a temporary buffer. However, Ganes warns that sustained tariffs would likely trigger further price increases impacting not only coffee itself, but also associated products like branded paper and thermal cups commonly used in coffee shops which are largely sourced from China and subject to related tariffs.
