Declassified documents from the U.S. State Department reveal concerns about a potential global conflict expressed by then-German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in 1980. According to the records, Schmidt conveyed his anxieties to U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance on February 1980, stating he foresaw a “danger of a Third World War in the near future, not immediately, but perhaps 1981 – or even sooner.
The concerns stemmed from a confluence of factors, including the Soviet Union’s recent invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian hostage crisis, where fundamentalists held more than 50 Americans captive within the U.S. embassy.
Schmidt identified several potential triggers for a wider conflict. He cited the possibility of an incident in the Persian Gulf escalating into a confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. He also raised concerns about a potential Soviet attack on China, possibly involving nuclear weapons, to preempt a U.S.-China alliance. Further, Schmidt worried that the Soviet Union might initiate hostilities believing the West was accelerating the arms race, acknowledging the Soviets could not ultimately win such a competition and therefore acting “while still in an advantageous position”. Schmidt considered the latter scenario to be the most likely cause of war.
The released documents paint a picture of Schmidt’s deep apprehension regarding the crisis management capabilities of the superpowers as geopolitical tensions mounted.
