Germany’s export figures have demonstrated a slight rebound in September, according to preliminary data released by the Federal Statistical Office. While offering a momentary reprieve from sustained weakness, the figures also highlight emerging vulnerabilities within the nation’s trade relationships and raise questions about the long-term sustainability of its export-led model.
Exports rose by 1.4% and imports by 3.1% when seasonally and calendar-adjusted compared to August. Year-on-year, exports increased by 2.0% while imports surged 4.8%, indicating a widening trade imbalance despite the overall surplus. The September surplus stood at €15.3 billion, a decline from €16.9 billion in August and significantly lower than the €18.0 billion recorded in September 2024.
The data reveals a complex interplay of factors influencing German trade. Trade within the European Union remains central, with exports to EU member states rising 2.5% and imports increasing 1.2% compared to August. However, a deeper analysis shows nuanced differences: trade with Eurozone countries saw export growth of 1.4% alongside a slight import decline (-0.7%), while non-Eurozone EU countries registered stronger growth in both exports (5.1%) and imports (4.9%). This disparity could signal shifting economic dynamics within the EU and potential anxieties about the single currency’s impact on Germany’s competitiveness.
Exports to third-party countries remained stagnant, while imports from these nations grew notably by 5.2%. This divergence underlines a potentially concerning shift, hinting at a weakening demand for German goods in crucial markets outside Europe and a growing reliance on imports, potentially impacting domestic industries.
The United States continues to be a primary destination for German exports, accounting for €12.2 billion in September. While this marks a welcome increase after a five-month decline, exports to the U.S. remain 14.0% lower than in September 2024, reflecting headwinds related to ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand. The sharp contraction against the previous year underlines the vulnerability of the German export model to external factors, particularly in its largest single market.
Conversely, exports to China have fallen by 2.2% in September, indicating a possible decline in demand and potential impact from Beijing’s ongoing economic challenges. While exports to the United Kingdom showed a notable increase of 7.1%, this could be a temporary fluctuation rather than a true sign of a revitalized trade relationship.
The increasing import reliance on China, with imports totaling €14.6 billion, also raises concerns about strategic dependency and potential vulnerabilities to supply chain disruptions. The significant increase in imports from the U.S. and the UK, while seemingly positive, should also be examined critically for dependency on specific goods or sectors.
Notably, the modest increase in exports to Russia, coupled with continued declines in imports, warrants further scrutiny in light of ongoing sanctions and geopolitical tensions. These figures highlight the potential economic consequences of ongoing instability, even as they suggest limited alternative market solutions are currently available.
The nominal, unadjusted figures show a broader picture, with exports up 5.3% and imports up 7.5% compared to September 2024. However, the reduced nominal trade surplus of €17.3 billion compared to €18.7 billion in the prior year signals a trajectory demanding careful monitoring and proactive policy intervention.
