Preliminary data released this week by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reveal a continuing decline in the number of first-graders entering the German school system, raising concerns about long-term demographic shifts and their implications for education policy. Approximately 811,500 children started school in the 2025/2026 academic year, representing an 18,200 decrease, or a 2.2% drop, compared to the previous year.
The contraction in student enrollment is not confined to a single region; nearly all of Germany’s sixteen federal states experienced a decline. The Saarland faced the most significant proportional decrease at -8.5%, followed by Sachsen-Anhalt (-5.6%), Thüringen (-5.5%) and Berlin (-4.2%). Only Bremen recorded a slight increase (+0.6%). This marks the second consecutive year of falling enrollment figures, a trend unseen since 2015.
While the decrease in births in 2019 is a primary driver of this demographic shift, analysts point to a more complex interplay of factors. The influx of children, particularly Ukrainian refugees, in recent years significantly bolstered enrolment numbers, a boost now waning as migration patterns adjust. Furthermore, the data show that both German-born children (-1.1%) and children with foreign parentage (-0.8%) experienced a reduction in numbers aged 5 to 6 by the close of 2024, underscoring a broader demographic trend beyond simply fluctuating migration patterns.
The vast majority (93%) of newly enrolled children began their formal education in mainstream primary schools. However, the data also highlight a concerning increase in the proportion of children placed in special education (“Förderschulen”), rising by 0.5% compared to the previous year. Conversely, fewer children are entering traditional primary schools (-2.3%), schools with three educational paths (-2.0%) and Waldorf schools (-4.0%).
The gender distribution amongst entrants was relatively balanced, with 51% being boys and 49% girls. However, the skewed gender ratio within special education settings – with boys accounting for a dominant 69% – further exacerbates concerns about potential underlying factors prompting such placements, raising questions about resource allocation and early intervention programs. Experts are urging policymakers to analyze these trends deeply, considering the potential need for revised demographic projections and adjustments to educational infrastructure and resource planning to effectively meet the evolving needs of Germany’s student population.
