A significant shift in German political sentiment is underway, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) widening its lead over the traditionally dominant Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU. A new poll conducted by the Institute for Opinion Research (Insa) and published by “Bild” reveals a concerning trend for the established political order, highlighting deep-seated anxieties within the electorate and potentially reshaping the landscape of German politics.
According to the survey, conducted between November 28th and December 1st, 2023 and based on responses from 2,002 citizens, the AfD now commands 27% of the potential vote – a one-point increase from the previous week. This marks a further erosion of support for the CDU/CSU, which has lost a full point to register at 24.5%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), traditionally a key coalition partner, continues its downward spiral, shedding half a percentage point to reach 14.5%. While the Free Democratic Party (FDP) shows a slight bump to 3.5%, the Green Party, the Left Party and the newly formed BSW remain stable.
The results underscore a growing chasm in German politics. The combined support for the CDU/CSU and SPD currently sits below 40%, raising serious questions about the viability of a continuation of the current “black and red” coalition government. As Hermann Binkert, head of Insa, pointed out, a parliamentary majority is already achievable with just 44% of the vote, suggesting a substantial power shift is possible in the upcoming federal election.
The survey’s findings are particularly noteworthy given the context of ongoing debates surrounding immigration policy, energy security and the rising cost of living – issues the AfD has skillfully exploited to attract voters feeling disillusioned with mainstream politics. While the potential for a single party to achieve an absolute majority remains slim, the AfD’s continued ascent signals a deeply unsettling trend for established German political institutions, demanding a critical reassessment of policy priorities and a renewed focus on addressing the anxieties driving voter migration towards the far-right. The fragmentation of the traditional political spectrum and the apparent exhaustion of centrist approaches warrant careful consideration of the potential long-term consequences for German governance and social cohesion.
