Preliminary data released by Destatis, the German Federal Statistical Office, reveals a complex and arguably precarious picture of industrial order intake in October 2025. While seasonally and calendar-adjusted order intake in the manufacturing sector increased by 1.5% compared to September 2025, a deeper analysis reveals vulnerabilities within the German industrial base and raises questions about the sustainability of this apparent recovery.
Stripping away the impact of substantial one-off contracts, order intake rose by a more modest 0.5%. Examining a three-month trend, August-October 2025 performance demonstrates a 0.5% decline overall, with a slightly less pronounced 0.1% drop when excluding these volatile large contracts. The revision upward of September’s performance – initially reported as a 1.1% increase, now revised to 2.0% – suggests a degree of statistical correction masking underlying weakness.
The primary driver of October’s positive headline figure stems from a staggering 87.1% surge in orders within the “Other Transport Equipment” sector, encompassing aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles. While a welcome boost, this heavily skewed the overall result and obscures potential issues within other critical sectors. A notable 11.9% increase in metal production and processing also contributed positively, but a significant 16.2% slump in electrical equipment manufacturing served as a counterbalancing drag.
Investment goods orders experienced a healthy 4.9% increase month-on-month, although this contrasts sharply with declines in orders for intermediate goods (-3.4%) and consumer goods (-2.2%). This divergence suggests a bifurcated demand landscape, potentially reflecting a resilience in capital expenditure alongside persistent weakness in consumer-driven sectors.
A worrying trend emerges in the international order picture. Foreign orders plummeted by 4.0% in October compared to the previous month. While orders from within the Eurozone demonstrated a slight uptick of 0.1%, orders originating outside the Eurozone suffered a more substantial 6.5% decline. This highlights a growing concern about Germany’s ability to maintain export-led growth amidst evolving global trade dynamics and potentially increasing protectionist pressures. Domestic orders, however, rose impressively, by 9.9%, possibly fueled by government stimulus measures though this warrants further investigation.
Real turnover in the manufacturing sector remained marginally positive, up 0.3% in October compared to September. However, year-on-year turnover, calendar-adjusted, registered a 1.6% decrease compared to October 2024, signaling persistent headwinds. The revised September data revealed a more significant decline of 2.4% compared to August 2025 – a downward revision of the initially reported -2.1%.
These figures, taken as a whole, paint a picture of an industrial sector heavily reliant on sporadic boosts and vulnerable to external shocks. The heavy weighting of a single, potentially temporary factor like a large military contract, combined with concerning declines in foreign orders and revisions of previous data, cast doubt on the durability of this seemingly positive trend. Analysts are now closely watching the coming months to determine whether October’s figures represent a genuine recovery or simply a fleeting reprieve within a far more challenging economic environment.
