Concerns are mounting within German political circles regarding the potentially devastating consequences of escalating cuts to international humanitarian aid, drawing parallels to the precursor of the 2015 refugee crisis. State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Serap Güler (CDU), warned in an interview with “Der Spiegel” and “Report Mainz” that repeating the mistakes of 2013, when humanitarian funding for Syrian refugees was drastically reduced, carries unacceptable risks.
The current trend sees key donor nations, including the United States, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, shrinking their humanitarian budgets despite ongoing conflicts like the devastating civil war in Sudan. Germany itself is enacting significant reductions, slashing its 2025 budget from €2.2 billion to approximately €1 billion, with no projected increase in 2026 – a direct contradiction of promises outlined in the current governing coalition’s agreement.
These cuts are exacerbating a precarious situation in Sudan and surrounding nations. Organizations like the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the World Food Programme are facing forced limitations in their ability to provide essential support. Internal situation reports, reviewed by “Der Spiegel” and “Report Mainz”, reveal deep concern within European governments regarding the evolving regional instability.
One key worry is the potential for new waves of displacement. A recent situation report details conditions in Sudanese refugee camps as so dire that further displacement towards Chad, Egypt and especially Libya is highly probable. Deteriorating living conditions and the inherent instability of Libya could incentivize Sudanese citizens to seek passage to Europe. Reports indicate a near tripling of arrivals on the Greek island of Crete compared to the previous year, signaling an escalating “migration pressure” on Greece and Italy.
Furthermore, governments in Hungary and Latvia reportedly issued urgent warnings in late November, documented in session protocols, citing the prospect of an “unimaginable forthcoming migration wave”. Critics argue that these reductions are short-sighted, failing to account for the long-term costs of instability and mass migration and are likely to actively contribute to further humanitarian crises and increased pressure on European borders. The cautionary parallels with the Syrian refugee crisis underscore the potential for a repeat of a costly and complex geopolitical challenge.
