A deeply divisive proposal to link the German retirement age to the number of years contributed is triggering significant public debate, revealing stark societal fault lines and potentially complicating Chancellor Scholz’s coalition negotiations. A recent Forsa poll, commissioned by “Stern” and RTL Deutschland, indicates a near-even split amongst the German populace – 50% supporting the model championed by economist Jens Südekum and 48% opposing it. This contrasts sharply with previous surveys regarding a broader, generalized increase to the standard retirement age of 67, which previously faced considerably greater resistance.
The Südekum model, designed to address the ongoing challenges of demographic shifts and pension system sustainability, is perceived differently across socio-economic groups. Those with higher educational attainment – individuals holding an Abitur (university entrance qualification) or a university degree – largely reject the proposal (51% against, 46% in favor), suggesting a potential for delayed retirement deemed undesirable. Opposition is particularly fervent amongst younger Germans, aged 18-29, where 63% voice their disapproval. Conversely, citizens with a Hauptschulabschluss (secondary school certificate) demonstrate a more favorable view, with 56% finding the reform worthwhile versus 42% opposed. Regional disparities are also pronounced, with East Germany exhibiting stronger support (58%) compared to the West.
Partisan affiliation significantly influences opinion. CDU/CSU voters (56%) and supporters of the AfD (54%) largely endorse the proposed reform. Conversely, the SPD, Greens and Die Linke experience predominant opposition, with 53% and 55% respectively voicing dissent. This divergence in political alignment further complicates the already fragile coalition government’s capacity to enact meaningful pension reforms.
The data, meticulously compiled by the market and opinion research institute Forsa through surveys conducted on December 11th and 12th, 2025, involving 1,001 respondents, highlights not only the complexity of the issue but also the potential for significant social unrest should the government proceed without broader consensus. The close split underscores the need for a comprehensive public discourse, exploring alternative solutions beyond simply linking retirement age to contribution years, to ensure the long-term stability and perceived fairness of Germany’s pension system. Analysts suggest the current impasse is likely to become a central battleground in upcoming policy debates, forcing the coalition to navigate a precarious balance between fiscal responsibility and social equity.
