Despite recent advances in negotiations between the United States and the European Union, a ceasefire in Ukraine remains a distant prospect, according to Wolfgang Ischinger, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference. In an interview with the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, Ischinger expressed deep skepticism regarding the potential for the Berlin discussions – initiated by CDU leader Friedrich Merz – to rapidly translate into a peaceful resolution with Russia.
While acknowledging that the meeting fostered “new trust” amongst Ukrainian, US and European representatives, representing a “certain breakthrough” Ischinger cautioned against undue optimism. He emphasized that any agreement secured within the Western alliance does not guarantee reciprocal action from Moscow.
Ischinger anticipates a strategy of deliberate delay and obfuscation from Russia. He predicts Moscow will revisit its previously rejected and considered “unacceptable” 28-point proposal, leveraging propaganda to portray the West and Ukraine as responsible for undermining it. This tactic, he argues, aims to prolong the conflict and create an environment conducive to Russia’s strategic goals.
A particular concern voiced by the former German ambassador centers on the potential for the White House to be swayed by further Russian maneuvering. He cited a recurring pattern over the past nine months, wherein direct communication between Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump resulted in shifting U.S. positions. Ischinger warned of a potential return to this dynamic, jeopardizing the fragile progress achieved in Berlin and re-introducing unpredictable variables into the ongoing crisis. The delicate balance of Western unity, he suggests, is vulnerable to a renewed cycle of negotiation and revision dictated by Russian influence.
