Germany’s import prices experienced a notable decline in November 2025, falling 1.9% compared to the same month in the previous year-the steepest year-on-year drop since March 2024. While October saw a -1.4% change and September a -1.0% change, a contrasting rise of 0.5% was observed when comparing November to the previous month. Export prices, however, bucked this trend, rising 0.3% above November 2024 levels, following a positive trajectory in October and September.
The primary driver behind the overall import price decrease was the substantial decline in energy prices, reporting a 15.7% drop year-on-year. Despite this prolonged downward trend, energy prices unexpectedly spiked by 3.1% compared to October, raising questions about the long-term stability of energy markets and potential inflationary pressures. This includes significant increases in electricity (+23.7% compared to October) and mineral oil products (+3.7%).
Excluding energy, import prices registered a modest 0.3% decline year-on-year, but still increased 0.3% compared to the prior month, suggesting underlying cost pressures are beginning to reassert themselves. Furthermore, analyzing data excluding just crude oil and mineral oil products revealed a comparatively smaller decrease of 1.1% compared to November 2024, hinting at a more complex picture than solely attributed to energy fluctuations.
Agricultural imports witnessed a 3.2% price decrease compared to the prior year, with raw cocoa prices plummeting by a substantial 28.0%-a statistic likely to impact food manufacturers and consumer costs. However, certain food staples, notably raw coffee, poultry and eggs, saw significant price increases.
The diverging trends in import and export prices are increasingly revealing a vulnerability in Germany’s trade balance. The rise in export prices, particularly for intermediate and investment goods, could erode the competitiveness of German manufacturers, particularly within the context of the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties affecting global supply chains.
The upward pressure on consumer goods prices, specifically for processed hazelnuts, roasted coffee, beef and orange juice, represents a tangible concern for German households already grappling with the lingering effects of inflation. While certain food items like olive oil and sugar demonstrated price decreases, the overall increase in food import costs by 2.8% reveals a fragile and uneven market.
The increase in energy export prices in October, despite the overall downward trend in energy imports, warrants scrutiny. Analysts suggest this could be indicative of fluctuating European energy demand and pricing strategies, potentially influenced by ongoing energy security concerns and the phasing out of nuclear power.
The data highlights a need for policymakers to carefully consider the interplay of energy dependency, global commodity price volatility and the potential for renewed inflationary pressures, particularly as Germany navigates a complex geopolitical landscape and strives to maintain its position as a leading global exporter.
