A significant portion of the German electorate harbors serious doubts about the stability of the current “black-red” coalition government, comprised of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), according to a recent survey by YouGov, commissioned by “Welt am Sonntag”. The poll reveals that 37% of Germans believe a collapse of the coalition is likely before its scheduled end in early 2029.
While 53% express a perception of the coalition’s continued viability, the significant level of skepticism underscores underlying tensions and waning public confidence. The divergence in opinion isn’t uniform across the population. Male respondents demonstrated considerably more apprehension than their female counterparts, with 41% anticipating a premature dissolution compared to 34% among women.
Geographic disparities are also notable. Concerns about the coalition’s longevity are more pronounced in eastern Germany, where 42% predict a breakup, versus 36% in western Germany. This difference likely reflects regional economic disparities and differing political priorities.
The survey data highlights a stark partisan divide. A substantial 67% of those who voted for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the last federal election anticipate the coalition’s failure, a reflection of the AfD’s persistent opposition and criticism of the government’s policies. Similarly, 50% of those supporting the Left party (Die Linke) share this view. Conversely, only 22% of CDU/CSU voters and 22% of SPD voters believe the coalition is unlikely to fall apart, suggesting a degree of complacency within the ruling parties’ bases.
Age also plays a crucial role in shaping perceptions. Those aged 40-49 are particularly skeptical, with 47% expecting a premature coalition failure, highlighting potential generational anxieties about the government’s direction. Older demographics, aged 60-69, exhibit the lowest levels of doubt.
The shift in sentiment compared to a similar survey conducted in May of this year – shortly after the government led by Merz assumed office – is noteworthy. The current level of predicted coalition instability represents a four-percentage-point increase from the earlier assessment. The previously minimal level of concern among CDU/CSU voters has also visibly risen.
These findings, based on online interviews with 1,010 participants from the YouGov panel, raise critical questions about the coalition’s resilience and the efficacy of its policy agenda. The persistent skepticism, particularly among key demographic groups and within opposition voter bases, suggests a potential fragility that could destabilize the government and impact its ability to address pressing national challenges. The discrepancies in regional and gendered perspectives reveal a fragmented public opinion that the coalition must urgently address if it hopes to fulfill its mandate.
