Germany faces an “existential threat” from China’s export model, according to Michael Kovrig, a former diplomat and China expert, who warns of urgent and decisive action to safeguard German industries. In an interview with “Handelsblatt”, Kovrig highlighted Germany’s precarious position, questioning the nation’s economic resilience beyond its industrial base. “Countries like Spain can perhaps live off tourism. But what does Germany have, apart from its industry?
Kovrig’s assessment carries considerable weight, given his firsthand experience with the coercive power of the Beijing regime. He endured 1,019 days of arbitrary detention in China, a tactic utilized to secure the release of a Huawei executive arrested in Canada. This experience provides a stark perspective on the lengths to which the Chinese government will go to achieve its strategic objectives.
The European Union is currently grappling with a proposal to impose tariffs, aiming to shield industries from the flood of cheap Chinese goods. However, this effort is hampered by resistance from individual companies heavily reliant on the Chinese market, fearful of retaliatory measures. Kovrig criticized the phenomenon, stating that the Chinese state has “managed to draw parts of the economy to its side” creating a complex web of dependencies.
He challenged the German government to confront this reality, demanding a rigorous assessment of vulnerabilities and a determination of which dependencies can be severed. A particularly critical question hangs over certain German firms: have they become so intertwined with Chinese interests that they are effectively beyond retrieval?
Kovrig’s perspective elevates the China challenge beyond conventional geopolitical concerns. He argues that China’s ascent represents a far more profound and destabilizing threat to Europe than Russia’s aggression in Ukraine or even the “America First” policies of former US President Donald Trump. “Russia, the US under Trump – those are storms. But China is climate change” he asserted. This analogy underscores the scale and enduring nature of the challenge, demanding a fundamental reassessment of Germany’s relationship with Beijing and a concerted effort to mitigate long-term strategic risks. The need for a strategic decoupling, while potentially economically uncomfortable, is presented as a crucial imperative for Germany’s future security and prosperity.
