The Institute for Applied Economic Research (IW) warns that German companies may not be adequately prepared for a crisis involving heightened tensions and defense. In a study that has not yet been published, the IW argues that total defense and deterrence against Russia cannot be considered solely in military terms; the economy must be systematically involved, the “Süddeutsche Zeitung” reports.
The IW economists draw on a survey of more than 1,000 firms, which yields mixed results. Six‑times‑fourty‐six per cent of respondents claim they already have effective measures against cyber attacks. The vast majority have also taken steps to counter disinformation, sabotage, and espionage. By contrast, only about three per cent of companies are equipped for a material shortfall, and a mere four per cent have a comprehensive plan for large‑scale personnel shortages. Just under five per cent report standing contracts that would allow them to deploy resources in such an emergency. When it comes to infrastructure deficits and bottlenecks in a serious scenario, 24 per cent feel ready, while an additional 17 per cent say they would supplement their capacity.
Should an acute crisis occur, businesses would face substantial responsibilities. Chief among them would be defense, technology, and supply‑chain firms providing sufficient weapons, vehicles, and equipment. Civil companies would need to free up staff for military service, transportation, logistics, and medical duties; buffer supply‑chain disruptions; and fortify systems against cyber attacks.
According to the IW, the most important role of the economy in a crisis is to maintain current levels of public supply. Politically, the authors argue: “An obvious collapse in economic prosperity could jeopardise support for defence efforts on NATO’s eastern flank”.
