Germany’s economic outlook is looking increasingly weak.
A new forecast released by the federal government shows that gross domestic product is expected to grow by only about 1 % in 2026, down from the 1.3 % that had been projected just before the fall.
In 2027 the growth estimate remains at 1.3 %, and the potential growth rate for the years that follow is also lower than before.
The government’s new projection assumes a much weaker rise in exports.
Exports to other countries are now expected to grow by only 0.8 % in 2026, compared with the 1.2 % that had been hoped for, while the 2027 figure stays at 1.6 %.
The ministry’s presentation attributes this decline to “double headwinds” from the United States and China, a point the “Handelsblatt” has reported.
Private consumption is also expected to rise modestly – 0.8 % in 2026 and 1.1 % in 2027 – leaving domestic recovery subdued.
GDP growth will largely be supported by public consumption, which is predicted to increase by 2.4 % this year.
Employment is projected to weaken slightly: the federal forecast anticipates an unemployment rate of 6.2 % in 2026 and 6.0 % in 2027.
