The German population is now expected to decline by about 10 % by 2070-a sharp revision from the earlier projection of a 1 % fall-according to a joint analysis of current population estimates by the Federal Statistical Office and the Ifo Institute.
Joachim Ragnitz of the Ifo Dresden office cautioned that the accelerated decline and ageing of the population must already be factored into long‑term policy decisions, particularly in health and care. He warned that labour shortages will worsen and the statutory pension system will face even greater pressure.
Ifo researcher Robert Lehmann added that a smaller population will reduce the need for housing, transport infrastructure and public‑sector staff. Yet the share of older adults will rise substantially, putting strain on health and care services. The study shows marked regional differences: eastern German land states are much more affected than western metropolitan areas, while the city‑states (e.g., Berlin, Hamburg, Bremen) are projected to see a population increase by 2070.
The dramatic downward revision stems from new data in the 2022 census, which records 81.9 million residents in Germany, versus the previously projected 83.2 million based on the 2011 census. This lower starting point, even with largely unchanged assumptions, leads to a pronounced long‑term decline in population. Until now, forecasts had assumed a fairly steady or slightly growing population through 2030.
