The German index, the DAX, opened cautiously on Friday morning. By 9:30 AM, the key index had reached 24,185 points, reflecting a slight gain of 0.1% compared to the previous closing level.
Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at Consorsbank, noted that the DAX was barely preventing a widening of losses, partly due to the stability observed in the S&P 500 and Wall Street. However, he warned that underlying nervousness is growing across global stock markets. He pointed out that ever since crude oil prices surpassed the $100 mark, global market unrest has noticeably increased. While investors are accustomed to banking on corporate resilience-a strength reportedly developed after the energy crisis of 2022-even this adaptability has its limits.
Such a luxury does not exist for oil traders. Faced with hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf and Western crude reserves depleting daily, the situation is critical. Although falling oil demand-driven by airlines canceling flights and people reducing car usage-is occurring, this demand decline will not be enough to resolve the logistical bottleneck. The remaining balance is being achieved solely through rising oil prices. Consequently, oil traders must react immediately, as time continues to run out with each day without free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Turning to specific stocks, Stanzl commented that SAP’s quarterly figures were as favorable as one could hope for given the current market backdrop. He explained that the recent 30% drop in SAP shares is related to the market’s expectation of an uncertain “adaptation phase” to the AI era. Nevertheless, the company’s report exceeded expectations in multiple categories. He found this surprising, considering the uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical framework, alongside the major structural changes currently affecting the software sector. The return of short-term orders to normal growth has bolstered the CEO’s previous explanations regarding weaker fourth-quarter order intake, which could help restore investor confidence, and has temporarily, though not entirely, quelled fears that customers are moving to AI-powered agents.
In related markets, the European common currency was slightly weaker on Friday morning, trading at 1 Euro per 1.1682 US dollars, making the dollar available at 0.8560 Euros. The price of gold also softened, falling to $4,684 per fine ounce in the morning (-0.3%), equivalent to 128.91 Euros per gram. Meanwhile, the price of crude oil rose, with a barrel of Brent (North Sea grade) costing $105.90 at 9 AM CET-an increase of 86 cents, or 0.8%, compared to the previous day’s close.
