The EU Commission has expressed doubts about the effectiveness of Germany’s goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2045. According to the Brussels authorities, responding to an inquiry from FDP MEP Moritz Körner-reported by “Welt am Sonntag”-direct additional effects are limited if a European country reduces emissions faster than others. Such efforts, the Commission noted, could serve as a global model.
The discussion is rooted in international commitments made in the 2015 Paris Agreement, wherein Germany and 194 other nations pledged to achieve climate neutrality in the second half of the century. This goal was later integrated into the European Climate Law. The Paris Agreement also mandated efforts to keep the global temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, and strive to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
A German expert council for environmental issues derived a remaining budget of greenhouse gas emissions from this framework-a limit Germany must adhere to in order to reach climate neutrality and meet its established goals. This expert opinion was cited in 2021 when the German Federal Constitutional Court struck down the federal climate protection law, which had focused on neutrality by 2050, arguing that doing so would consume the majority of Germany’s carbon budget by 2030. In response, the federal government adjusted its path to a linear CO2 reduction, setting a new target of climate neutrality for 2045.
However, the timeline is met with skepticism by various parties. MEP Moritz Körner stated that Germany’s premature push for climate neutrality merely helps other nations to become climate neutral more slowly, but argues that this shift does nothing for the climate itself. Similarly, Joachim Weimann, a professor at Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, called the accelerated goal “completely ineffective” claiming that while it might threaten Germany’s prosperity, it offers no real help to the climate.
Critics also question the fate of the reduced carbon dioxide. The European Emissions Trading System, which manages the buying and selling of pollution rights, theoretically offers a venue for these excess emissions. However, current reduction rates in both emissions trading systems would already ensure that no new certificates are issued for CO2 emissions by the late 2030s anyway.
In a related development, Bavaria previously aimed for climate neutrality by 2040 but has since withdrawn that timetable. CSU General Secretary Martin Huber maintained that “climate protection is important and climate neutrality is our stated goal” adding that climate protection is only viable if the country’s economic performance is guaranteed and if it is accepted by the public. Bavaria now aligns its goals with the rest of the country, aiming for 2045.
Peter Adrian, President of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), noted that many companies have set climate goals for 2045 and tied business opportunities for their products and services to them. Nevertheless, he cautioned that “climate protection cannot succeed based on target setting alone”.
