A two-week period of intense heat in late June has already cost the German economy at least 6.3 billion Euros, according to a calculation conducted by the consulting firm Prognos and reported by the newspaper “Handelsblatt”.
The analysis provides the first quantifiable assessment of the economic toll of a short heat period across various sectors. Prognos found that 97% of these damages stem from reduced employee productivity, rather than issues related to machine failure or supply chain disruptions. Manufacturing accounted for the largest portion of the losses, registered at approximately 1.9 billion Euros, followed by the healthcare and social services sectors, and then trade.
Lukas Sander, an expert at Prognos, noted that the 6.3 billion Euro figure is likely a conservative estimate, stating that further costs-such as increased energy prices-have not yet been factored into the calculation.
Manfred Fischedick, President of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy, views these findings as a critical warning signal for Germany’s position as an economic hub. He emphasized that productivity losses due to heat during the summer months are mounting, a trend that must be addressed alongside ongoing debates about Germany’s competitiveness against rivals like China. Fischedick stressed that Germany has not been adequately prepared for such frequent heatwaves.
Experts caution that the damage could escalate significantly in the coming years. If Germany experiences just three or four heatwaves similar to the recent event annually, economic losses could exceed 20 billion Euros each year. Furthermore, infrastructure across the country is not equipped to handle such extreme temperatures. Several businesses confirmed having incurred additional operational costs related to cooling, adapting work schedules, and implementing employee protection measures.
The greater frequency and intensity of heatwaves are intrinsically linked to human-caused global warming, an effect that continues to intensify as greenhouse gases from the combustion of coal, oil, and gas are released into the atmosphere.
Scientific analysis from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative showed that the temperatures experienced during the June heatwave would have been “practically impossible” in 1976. They also were extremely unlikely to occur at any other time of year. Similarly, during the first major heatwave of the century in 2003, such peak daily temperatures were highly unusual, and the nighttime temperatures from the recent June event would have been over a hundred times less likely back in 2003.
