A new study released Monday by the Institute of the German Economy (IW) projects a significant widening of the skills shortage in Germany by 2028. The study forecasts a nationwide deficit of 768,000 skilled professionals within the next five years.
The sectors facing the most acute shortage are sales-related professions. Despite decreasing employment in some areas, the skills gap continues to expand. The study estimates that over 40,000 positions, particularly within the retail sector, could remain unfilled by 2028. This trend is largely attributed to demographic shifts, making it increasingly difficult for companies to find replacements for retiring or departing employees.
The metalworking industry is also expected to see a substantial decline in employment, approximately 14 percent, equating to a loss of roughly 161,000 jobs by 2028. This reduction is driven by a challenging economic climate and a wave of retirements, disproportionately affecting unskilled laborers in metal processing. Similarly, positions for metal construction and metalworking specialists are predicted to see a substantial decline, although a persistent skills gap of 7,400 and 5,300 respectively remains. The lack of new entrants into these trades prevents companies from filling vacant roles.
While the field of early childhood education is experiencing an increase in new talent, the current growth isn’t enough to meet demand. The number of employees in this sector is expected to rise by around 136,400 by 2028, yet the skills gap simultaneously expands to just under 31,000.
Alexander Burstedde, an IW expert, cautioned against complacency in interpreting a recent decline in open positions, stating that it shouldn’t obscure the underlying structural skills shortage across numerous sectors. He emphasized that the greatest deficits are within occupations requiring completed vocational training, which account for more than half of the overall skills gap. Companies are increasingly struggling to fill offered apprenticeship positions.
