Economists across Europe are predicting a significant rise in import tariffs on goods from the United States by the end of the year, according to a new international survey conducted by the Ifo Institute. The Economic Experts Survey (EES) reveals a widespread expectation of escalating trade barriers.
The average projected tariff on US products stands at 18 percent. Countries like France, Spain and Portugal have provided notably higher estimates, anticipating tariffs ranging from 20 to 25 percent. In contrast, central European nations, including Germany, forecast tariffs between 15 and 20 percent. The lowest tariff burden is expected in Sweden, Bulgaria and Italy, with projections of 10 to 15 percent.
“There’s a distinct difference between what experts anticipate and what they deem appropriate” stated Ifo researcher Emilie Höslinger. “They are essentially preparing for a protectionist reality, yet overwhelmingly advocate for significantly lower tariff rates.
The EU economists participating in the survey recommend an average tariff of 12.8 percent on imports from the US. However, these recommendations vary considerably between member states, reflecting ongoing challenges in forging a unified trade policy within the European Union.
Conversely, economists in the United States anticipate a similarly elevated average tariff of 19 percent on imports from the EU by year-end. However, they strongly advocate for significantly lower tariffs on EU goods, suggesting a rate of just 3 percent. This divergence between predicted realities and recommended policies presents a significant challenge for policymakers.
“The results should serve as a warning to politicians” remarked Ifo researcher Philipp Heil. “Experts on both sides of the Atlantic believe their countries are not pursuing economically optimal trade policies”. He underscored the need for a well-informed and collaborative trade strategy to ensure stability in the global market.
