As a resolution to the trade dispute between the United States and the European Union appears increasingly likely, Jörg Rocholl, President of the European School of Management and Technology, cautions against expecting immediate positive impacts on the German economy.
While an agreement is anticipated that would average around 15% in tariffs, Rocholl, speaking to RTL and ntv, urged a measured approach. “Uncertainty is a defining characteristic of the Trump era. From a negotiating standpoint alone, we on the European side should still leave room for maneuver”. This ongoing ambiguity significantly burdens businesses and investment. He suggested that while 15% tariffs would not represent an ideal situation, they would not be catastrophic. The crucial factor, he emphasized, is providing companies with a stable and predictable framework for planning.
Regarding potential exemptions for specific industries, such as steel, Rocholl warns against creating an overly complex system of special regulations, advocating for clear conditions also to be established within the automotive industry. He further pointed to larger, underlying structural challenges facing Germany. Beyond unresolved issues concerning pension insurance and increasing social spending, he identifies a need for reform in managing rising labor costs. “The governing parties, in particular, are called upon to address genuine change in this area” he stated.
Despite the investment summit held on Monday, Rocholl remains cautiously optimistic. “These are important signals, but it is concrete implementation combined with structural reforms that will foster sustainable growth”. He also recommends that Europe pursues a more independent trade policy regarding its relationship with China, rather than relying heavily on the United States.
Concerning economic forecasts, Rocholl expressed a subdued optimism, suggesting that government interventions might prevent a further recession. However, he stressed that profound reforms are indispensable for long-term success. “Otherwise, the risk remains that what emerges in the end is merely a temporary blaze”.
