Researchers at Ruhr University Bochum have identified a psychological phenomenon they say helps explain skepticism surrounding election results. The team, led by Moritz Ingendahl, detailed their findings on Friday, attributing the effect to what they term “Cumulative Redundancy Bias.
This bias leads individuals to place heightened significance on initial, partial results, subsequently leading to suspicions of irregularities when later results shift the apparent outcome.
Across seven studies involving participants from both the United States and the United Kingdom, the research team observed a consistent pattern: participants continued to perceive the candidate who initially held a lead, even after later data indicated a loss. The effect reversed when results were presented in reverse order. The researchers noted particularly striking evidence of this bias in the analysis of the 2020 US election, where Donald Trump initially led.
As a potential remedy to bolster trust in democratic processes, the study authors propose that complete election results be released only after a full count is finalized. They also advocate for increased public education regarding the typical progression and nuances of vote tabulation procedures. The findings have been published in the peer-reviewed journal “Psychological Science”.
