The recent poll conducted by the polling institute Forsa shows positive gains for the AfD and the Union parties. According to the “Trendbarometer” from the broadcasters RTL and ntv, which surveyed 2,502 individuals between October 13th and 19th, the AfD remains the strongest force with 27 percent (+1 percentage point).
Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU has also edged up by one point, returning to 20 percent, while the Greens maintain their position at 17 percent. The SPD and the Left Party both lost one percentage point, settling at 13 percent and 11 percent, respectively. The FDP remains unchanged at four percent. Overall, 25 percent of respondents indicated they were non-voters or undecided, staying above the 17.9 percent level seen in the 2025 federal election.
Currently, the work of the federal government and the ruling coalition continues to take up the attention of German citizens, cited as one of the most important issues by 37 percent of respondents. Other key topics include the war in Ukraine (24 percent, showing an increasing trend), the economic situation in Germany (20 percent), and the formation of governments in the eastern German states during the state elections (18 percent). Right-wing radicalism is cited by 10 percent, followed by fuel prices at nine percent.
When asked which party they believe is most capable of solving Germany’s problems, the AfD achieved its highest score yet in the survey at 14 percent. The CDU/CSU reached nine percent. The SPD and the Greens scored six percent each, and the Left Party received five percent support. However, 57 percent of respondents believe that no party is capable of best solving Germany’s problems-this is the highest figure since the 2025 federal election.
Regarding the performance of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), only 11 percent of respondents reported satisfaction, compared to 87 percent dissatisfaction. Dissatisfaction remains at its highest measured level for Merz and is above the previous low point registered by his predecessor, Olaf Scholz. Even among CDU/CSU supporters, dissatisfaction is now significant: 36 percent are satisfied with the Chancellor’s work, and 62 percent are not-which is the worst figure in his own base. Among SPD supporters, 86 percent are dissatisfied, while 92 percent of Green supporters and 98 percent of supporters of the Left and AfD are unhappy.
A majority of 56 percent of citizens expect the current coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD to break up before the end of the legislative period in early 2029. Forty percent of the 1,009 individuals surveyed by Forsa on October 16th and 19th expect the coalition to last until its official end. This confirms the assessment that emerged as early as May. A substantial portion of supporters of the government parties also anticipate an early collapse: 39 percent of CDU/CSU supporters and 40 percent of SPD supporters expect a breakdown before 2029. This expectation is stronger among Green supporters (47 percent), Left Party supporters (53 percent), and AfD supporters (77 percent).
The perception of Germany’s support for Ukraine has shifted notably. Currently, 43 percent of citizens believe that Germany is doing too much to support Ukraine. Forty-one percent feel the current level of German commitment is appropriate, while 12 percent believe it is too little. For comparison, in April 2022, only 16 percent thought the federal government was overdoing its support for Ukraine.
Differences among party supporters are particularly clear. While clear majorities of CDU/CSU supporters (62 percent), SPD supporters (63 percent), and Green supporters (64 percent) believe the level of German support is right, 90 percent of AfD supporters feel Germany is doing too much for Ukraine. There are also notable differences between East and West: 65 percent in the east feel the support is too extensive, compared to 40 percent in the west.
The outlook for the economy remains mostly pessimistic. Eighteen percent of respondents anticipate an improvement in Germany’s economic conditions, while 63 percent expect a deterioration. Another 18 percent believe the economic situation will remain unchanged. The resulting index stands at minus 45 points, marking a one-point drop from the previous week.
