Five months ahead of the Baden-Württemberg state election, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)’s lead in voter preference is narrowing, according to a new poll conducted by Infratest Dimap for Südwestrundfunk (SWR). While remaining the frontrunner, the CDU’s dominance is demonstrably softening, raising questions about the potential for a significant shift in the state’s political landscape.
The poll indicates the CDU currently holds 29% of the vote, a two-percentage-point decline from May. This continued downward trend contrasts sharply with a year ago when the CDU enjoyed a commanding 16-point advantage over the Greens and an even larger lead over the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Notably, the AfD has gained two points in this latest survey, now reaching 21% and securing a surprising second-place position. The Greens, led by Cem Özdemir, remain stable at 20%.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) languishes at a consistent 10%, struggling to regain momentum. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) maintains its 5% and faces a precarious path to re-entry into the state parliament. A significant development is the potential emergence of Die Linke, projected to reach 7% and potentially secure representation in the state parliament for the first time. The newly formed BSW (Bundnis S.08) trails behind, hovering just below the 5% threshold.
Comparing to the 2021 state election results, a dramatic recalibration of the political order is apparent. The Greens secured 32.6%, the CDU 24.1%, the SPD 11%, the FDP 10.5%, the AfD 9.7% and Die Linke 3.6%. The rise of the AfD, alongside the potential seating of Die Linke, signals a significant fragmentation of the traditional parliamentary structure.
The poll suggests a palpable desire for a change in government following nearly fifteen years of Green leadership under Minister President Kretschmann. Forty percent of respondents express a preference for a CDU-led government, a slight decrease from previous surveys. However, 29% still favor the status quo with a Green Minister President, while a notable 21% – an increase of two points – support an AfD-led government, demonstrating the growing appeal, or at least the discontent fueling, the far-right party.
The CDU faces a striking disadvantage regarding name recognition, largely due to the considerable public awareness surrounding Cem Özdemir. Were voters to directly elect the Minister President, 41% would choose Özdemir, while only 17% would prefer CDU state and parliamentary group leader Manuel Hagel. The widening gap, an increase of three points, illustrates the uphill battle the CDU faces in crafting a narrative that resonates with the electorate. Markus Frohnmaier of the AfD, reflecting the party’s growing appeal, garners support from 8% of those surveyed seeking a new direction for Baden-Württemberg.
The survey was conducted between October 8th and 14th, 2024, encompassing responses from 1,158 individuals across Baden-Württemberg.
