Eastern German State Elections Loom
The potential for unprecedented political realignments is emerging in eastern Germany as the prospect of upcoming state elections casts a long shadow over the established political landscape.. Manfred Güllner, Director of the prominent polling institute Forsa, has suggested that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Left Party (Die Linke) may be compelled to collaborate in the aftermath of next year’s elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a development that challenges long-held ideological boundaries.
Güllner’s assessment, delivered in an interview with the “Rheinische Post”, highlights the increasingly precarious position of mainstream parties in the face of the Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) surge in popularity. Current polling indicates that the AfD is commanding support levels nearing 40% in both Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a figure that effectively obstructs the formation of governing coalitions without engaging in potentially uncomfortable alliances.
The situation in Saxony-Anhalt is particularly stark. Güllner states that a government excluding the AfD would “probably only” be viable with the participation of Die Linke. This scenario is fueled by the declining support for traditional governing parties, making alternative coalition configurations unsustainable.
A similar dynamic is predicted for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where Güllner posits that an alliance of the SPD, CDU, Greens and Die Linke might be the sole path to excluding the AfD from power. Such a coalition would, however, necessitate a delicate navigation of the existing incompatibility resolutions within the CDU, stipulations designed to maintain distance from the Left Party’s political agenda. These resolutions, intended to safeguard the CDU’s core principles, would now face considerable pressure to be re-evaluated or bypassed.
The potential for CDU-Die Linke cooperation, while seemingly improbable just a few years ago, underscores the profound shift in German politics. It raises critical questions about the future of traditional party loyalties, the evolving definition of political acceptability and the significant challenge posed by the AfD’s sustained electoral gains. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether these predictions materialize and what consequences they hold for the stability and direction of German governance. The need to find a viable alternative to the AfD may be fostering an eventual compromise that could leave a lasting mark on the political system.
