China’s economy grew by 5 % in 2025, according to official figures, but experts warn that the apparent stability is misleading. Jörg Wuttke, long‑time chief of the German Chamber of Commerce in China, calls the government’s 5 % growth target political propaganda. “A realistic estimate is closer to two or three percent” he told “Handelsblatt” in its Thursday edition. He attributes the shortfall to rapid demographic aging, high levels of debt, and a weak real estate sector that once contributed 20-25 % of output.
Wuttke also criticises the quality of China’s official statistics. “The more centralised the system, the poorer the data. As long as they look good, they’re accepted” he said. He notes that consumption alone cannot revitalize the economy, because many Chinese households are saving out of fear and significant wealth is leaving the country.
The interior political weaknesses, he warned, spill over into foreign policy. Beijing’s risk appetite, especially toward Taiwan, appears to have increased, yet its military, though modernised, remains institutionally fragile. For European firms, the lesson is to take advantage of opportunities while protecting themselves from over‑reliance on China. “If you don’t learn from China, you lose; if you depend solely on it, you also lose” he added.
