The Expert Council on Climate Issues confirmed the German Environment Agency’s calculations for greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 in its latest report shared in Berlin on Monday. According to the findings, emissions decreased by only 0.1 percent compared to the previous year. This slight reduction was ultimately offset by increases in the buildings and transportation sectors, which cancelled out declines observed in the industrial and energy sectors.
While preliminary projection data for 2026 suggests that the carbon budget could be maintained until 2030 with a buffer of 4.5 million tons of CO2 equivalents, the Expert Council disagrees with this assessment. They conclude that the current projections for 2026 underestimate the expected emission levels through 2030. Based on the Council’s calculations, the average projected emissions path could be 60 to 100 million tons of CO2 equivalents above the allowable budget for 2030.
Barbara Schlomann, the Chairwoman, emphasized that the assumptions underlying the calculations for both the energy and building sectors must be updated. She stated that the Council anticipates that actual emissions in both sectors will likely be higher than currently estimated. Furthermore, the Council pointed out that crucial regulatory adjustments, such as the building modernization law currently undergoing parliamentary review, are not factored into the projection data. The omission of these potential changes introduces additional risks to the planned emissions trajectory.
Consequently, the Expert Council urges the federal government to revise the Climate Protection Program for 2026, as its current framework would fail to meet the statutory targets set for 2040. The Council noted that if they were to issue another finding of an emissions budget overrun next year, the government would be required by the Climate Protection Act to implement additional measures. Moreover, experts believe the government’s current program is unsuitable to avert the statutory obligation to take necessary corrective actions. Finally, the Council also suspects that the federal government could face further climate policy lawsuits.
