30 AM, a 0..2 percent increase from the previous day’s close.
Jochen Stanzl, head market analyst at CMC Markets, noted that the trading range for the DAX is narrowing in anticipation of key US labor market data. “The figures, scheduled for release today at 2:30 PM due to a holiday, will be crucial in assessing the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate path” Stanzl stated. “With two more reports pending before the expected September rate cut, the overall trend is likely to be more influential than any single data point.
The analyst further commented that even weak labor market data could lead the Fed to delay a rate reduction until September, despite Jerome Powell’s non-categorical dismissal of a July cut during the Sintra conference. Powell is keen to avoid any perception of yielding to pressure from the US President for rapid rate cuts, emphasizing the central bank’s independence. Stanzl suggested that ironically, a lack of compelling data could ultimately prevent a preemptive rate cut driven by President Trump.
Beyond monetary policy, investor focus remains on trade policy. Optimism is cautiously present as investors await solutions, preventing a steeper decline in the DAX. Wall Street is currently trading near record highs. However, a sustained break above 24,000 points for the DAX hinges on clarity regarding the final terms of agreements between the EU and the US. Until then, skepticism prevails.
A definitive assessment of global trade remains elusive due to a lack of concrete details. While President Trump has secured agreements with Vietnam, the UK and China, 54 countries remain subject to high reciprocal tariffs exceeding the baseline 10 percent, effective July 9th. This presents a seven-day window requiring approximately eight trade agreements to be announced daily. Failure to maintain this pace could test investor patience.
In currency markets, the euro strengthened slightly on Thursday morning, trading at 1.1804 US dollars. Conversely, the US dollar was valued at 0.8472 euros.
