The German automotive retail sector anticipates a significant surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales following the government’s recently announced purchase premium scheme, potentially boosting sales of battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids by 160,000 to 180,000 units. This projection, released by the Central Association of Automotive, Tire and Workshop Dealers (ZDK), suggests a distinct shift in consumer behavior, with the majority of additional new car registrations likely to be fully electric vehicles.
ZDK forecasts total sales of 1.1 million battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids by 2026, including 300,000 solely for private customers. Simultaneously, the association predicts a contraction in sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, potentially declining by up to twelve percent, contributing to an overall projected increase of nearly four percent in total passenger vehicle sales to 2.95 million units.
However, the optimism surrounding the purchase premium is tempered by concerns regarding its potential long-term economic consequences. The ZDK warns that the subsidy is likely to further depress the already low resale values and leasing residual values of electric vehicles. The association’s president, Thomas Peckruhn, expressed disappointment that the government’s scheme does not extend to younger, used electric vehicles, arguing that this oversight could stifle the broader adoption of EVs among a wider range of consumers.
Critics argue that the current framework, focused primarily on new vehicle purchases, risks skewing the market, artificially inflating demand for new EVs while potentially undermining the second-hand electric vehicle market. This raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the government’s strategy and its potential to create unintended consequences, impacting both dealers and consumers alike in the years to come. The focus, some industry observers suggest, should be on fostering a more holistic market for electric mobility, encompassing both new and used vehicles to ensure accessibility for all income brackets.
