The European Union’s ambitious plan to achieve semiconductor independence from dominant exporters like China, South Korea and Taiwan is facing a stark reality check, falling significantly short of its stated goals. Just two years ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared a bold vision: for Europe to capture 20% of the global semiconductor market by 2030, a considerable leap from its then 9.8% share, spurred by pandemic-related supply chain disruptions.
However, internal assessments now suggest a far more modest increase, with Brussels projecting a share of only 11.7% by the target year. This substantial deviation has prompted Commission Vice-President Henna Virkkunen to acknowledge the 20% target as “still a challenge” raising serious questions about the efficacy of the “European Chips Act” and the broader strategy for European technological sovereignty.
While the Act has spurred commitments from private companies totaling over €80 billion in manufacturing facility investments and the EU Commission has approved substantial subsidies for research, development and pilot programs, the landscape has shifted. The United States and Japan, reacting similarly to the vulnerabilities exposed by the Covid-19 crisis, have also established aggressive semiconductor expansion goals, intensifying global competition for market share.
Despite forecasts indicating a doubling of semiconductor manufacturing capacity within the EU by 2030, Brussels now concedes that the global market is expanding at a comparably rapid rate, effectively neutralizing the projected gains. This leaves the EU struggling to keep pace with the accelerating technological advancements driving artificial intelligence and other critical sectors.
“Von der Leyen’s chip promise is proving to be a pipe dream” stated Member of the European Parliament Moritz Körner (FDP), in a statement to “Der Spiegel”. “The AI and chip revolution is happening without Europe. The EU risks becoming a digital colony”. Körner’s critique highlights a simmering fear within European political circles: that the EU’s pursuit of technological autonomy is faltering, potentially relegating the region to a position of dependence on external powers in a rapidly evolving digital economy. The shortfalls demand a critical reassessment of the current strategy and a re-evaluation of the EU’s long-term commitment to fostering a robust domestic semiconductor industry.
