The European Commission is projecting a significant surge in deportations from the European Union, signaling a hardening of migration policies and drawing criticism from human rights advocates. According to EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner, the deportation rate has already risen from 19% in 2023 to 27% in 2025, a trend he anticipates will culminate in the highest deportation rate since 2019 by 2025 – a figure he admits is “far from enough.
Brunner, formerly Austria’s Finance Minister, attributes this escalation to the anticipated implementation of legislative proposals advanced by the Commission at the beginning of 2025, which he claims will allow member states to “deport even more effectively”. He frames the current trajectory as an initial success in combating what he describes as “illegal migration on all fronts.
The Commission’s plans extend beyond increased deportations and encompass a new “Common European Return System” intended to streamline the process. This system proposes significant cuts to benefits for individuals obligated to leave the EU who refuse cooperation, such as attending consultation sessions. Furthermore, pre-emptive detention periods of up to 24 months are planned for asylum seekers suspected of attempting to evade deportation, with potentially unlimited detention for those with criminal records. Mutual recognition of deportation orders between EU member states is also on the agenda.
Controversially, the proposals include the potential for deporting individuals to countries where they have no prior connection, a measure critics decry as a violation of international law and the principle of “non-refoulement”. “Return hubs” located outside EU borders, where rejected asylum seekers would await repatriation, are also being explored, with the Netherlands already securing an agreement with Uganda to host such a facility.
Adding to the assertive approach, Brunner recently unveiled a list of seven countries now designated as “safe” permitting the fast-tracked return of migrants through expedited border procedures after a mere six months, effectively circumventing more thorough asylum assessments.
While proponents argue these measures are necessary to curb irregular migration and enhance border security, the intensified policies are facing scrutiny. Opposition voices raise concerns about due process, the potential for human rights abuses and the ethical implications of transferring asylum seekers to third countries with questionable human rights records. The escalating deportation rates and increasingly restrictive measures are fueling a debate about the EU’s commitment to its international obligations and the potential for a further erosion of asylum seeker protections.
