European military goods continue to reach Russia through third countries, even after the EU’s extensive sanctions, a new study by the Ifo Institute and Econpol Europe, released Thursday, shows. According to the research, more than one‑third (36 %) of the sanctioned items that enter Russia are routed via Turkey. China accounts for almost a quarter (23 %), Hong Kong 16 %, and the United Arab Emirates 10 %.
“The EU has tightened and expanded export bans on Russia since early 2024” said Ifo trade expert Feodora Teti. “This has reduced observable sanction circumvention through third countries, but EU‑originated military goods still reach Russia through indirect channels”.
In the last three months of 2024, EU exports via third countries amounted to roughly 6 % of pre‑war levels. Between September 2022 and January 2024, the monthly average remained between 13 % and 24 %. Teti noted that the study captures only indirect exports through intermediaries; other evasion methods-such as smuggling by private individuals or false declarations of goods or origins-are not reflected. “Thus, our estimates should be viewed as a lower bound for the true extent of sanction evasion” she said.
The EU has also broadened its liability framework for 2024 sanctions, extending responsibility to suppliers and intermediaries who either knew or should have known about potential circumvention via third countries. Additionally, the union expanded export bans to cover all 42 military‑relevant product categories and imposed targeted penalties on individual intermediaries involved in re‑exports.
The study draws on trade data for 42 defense‑related products that are subject to EU export bans to Russia and have been repeatedly found in Russian military systems. By analysing import records from Russian customs declarations at the transaction level, the researchers examined the flows of military goods from the EU into Russia before and after the onset of the Ukraine conflict.
