The head of ECFR’s Berlin office, Jana Puglierin, estimates that Germany and Europe will need a decade to achieve military autonomy in conventional warfare, free from U.S. reliance. She points out that European armies still lack capabilities in several strategic key areas, where they depend heavily on the United States. Besides intelligence gathering and target identification, these gaps include integrated air defence and strategic air transport.
Puglierin says the necessary armament programme will require at least five years, and for sectors such as reconnaissance, surveillance, and satellite technology it could take a decade or more. “Europe must be able to defend itself alone” she stresses. “There is no real alternative except turning into a kind of protectorate by depending on a protector”.
She argues that the old NATO model, shaped under U.S. President Donald Trump, is no longer available and won’t return. “We now face a serious problem with the credibility of deterrence” she observes. “Trump’s handling of the Greenland crisis weakened the assurance clause”.
The hardest question, she adds, is how European states should respond to a potential erosion of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. An EU nuclear weapon is not a viable replacement for many reasons. “Our priority must be to work pragmatically with the atomic powers France and the United Kingdom to find ways for them to contribute more strongly to overall European deterrence” Puglierin says.
