According to Austrian military expert Markus Reisner, the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine this autumn or winter is currently higher than ever since the war began. The Colonel from the Austrian Ministry of Defense cited several indicators circulating within military circles for this assessment.
A significant factor, Reisner noted, is the political pressure coming from the US administration. President Trump reportedly needs a political win ahead of the upcoming Congressional mid-term elections, especially following perceived setbacks related to the Iran conflict. Trump is currently attempting to apply immense pressure on both Kyiv and Moscow to push them toward a truce.
When asked how the US is applying this leverage, the military analyst explained that American policy includes denying Ukraine the Patriot surface-to-air missiles desperately needed for air defense. This, he argued, is Ukraine’s Achilles’ heel, enabling Russia to apply further pressure that the capital struggles to withstand. Concurrently, however, the US administration is supplying Ukraine with reconnaissance data and Artificial Intelligence analysis tools, which the Ukrainian military also requires for offensive strikes into Russian territory.
Shifting focus to the drone incident at Leipzig Airport last week, Reisner stated that any independent review must consider Ukraine as a potential instigator. While he aligns with U.S. intelligence assessments that attribute responsibility to Russia, he conceded that theoretically, Ukraine could have been involved. He noted an indicator for this theory: there was no explosion, suggesting alternative scenarios must be considered by an independent analyst. Reisner added that determining the true source of the attempted attack would be extremely difficult, potentially even being executed by a rogue terrorist acting independently or on someone else’s behalf.
