Reports indicate that the United States is reportedly pushing Europe toward resuming the import of Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine; however, numerous experts have issued stern warnings against adopting this course of action. Georg Zachmann, an energy expert at the think tank Bruegel, stated to Spiegel that if Russia were to use the US as an intermediary in pipeline gas shipments, this would represent the “most unfavorable scenario,” as it would grant the US an even greater dominance over Europe’s gas supply.
Zachmann argued that sanctions against Russian energy exports are an essential lever if any diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine is to be pursued. Furthermore, he predicted that the US involvement would not lead to any pricing advantages for Europe. Instead, he surmised that the US would keep prices high to protect its profitable liquefied natural gas (LNG) business from cannibalization.
André Wolf, an economist, and Götz Reichert, an environmental lawyer, from the Centre for European Politics (CEP) in Freiburg, warned that any discussion with Russia about restarting energy deliveries would necessitate highly complex and significant political negotiations. The specialists viewed the political signal sent by such a move as devastating. Reichert and Wolf further argued that since global production capacities are increasingly depleted, Russia would need to heavily invest in developing new gas fields in the Arctic, which would inevitably lead to substantial extraction and transport costs. Consequently, Russian gas sold at current market rates might not be cheaper than LNG transported across the ocean.
The experts stressed that even if Moscow were to offer discounts for reasons of geopolitical expediency, this would not mend the profound loss of faith in Russia’s reliability as an energy provider. For future industrial projects that relied on Russian gas, this lack of trust could translate into being confronted with high risk premiums during financing. The US negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have supposedly proposed to Europe in a report from The Wall Street Journal that it quickly resume importing Russian gas through Ukraine.
