Regarding the low poll ratings for Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and the conservative-red coalition, two pollsters offer contrasting analyses. Manfred Güllner, the founder and former CEO of the Forsa Institute, approaches the possibility of improvement with considerable skepticism. Telling newspapers in the Funke Media Group, Güllner expressed concern that the widespread dissatisfaction among citizens with Chancellor Merz has become entrenched.
Güllner noted that while many Americans were initially relieved by the end of the previously unpopular traffic light coalition and looked forward to a new beginning, many are now disappointed. He added that the perception that Merz is incapable of governing grows stronger week after week, and it seems unlikely that Merz can change this public assessment anytime soon.
Güllner believes Merz has failed to halt the rise of the AfD. According to him, Merz lacks the ability to unite diverse societal groups or balance competing interests, as his announcements and the actual experiences of the public are sharply misaligned. While acknowledging that people understand the economy cannot instantly recover, Güllner concluded that the way Merz governs and presents himself only makes the judgment against him more negative.
In contrast, communication expert Raphael Brinkert still sees opportunities for the head of government. Speaking to the Funke newspapers, Brinkert pointed out that the government was elected for four years and must contend with numerous unforeseen crises and reform backlogs. He used a basketball analogy, stating that they are only in the first quarter break and the team now needs to demonstrate its ability to stage a comeback.
Brinkert, who managed a successful European election campaign for Angela Merkel and the CDU in 2019, and who was also behind two different campaigns for Olaf Scholz (SPD), analyzed the situation further. He explained that current dissatisfaction is heightened because the expected economic recovery has not materialized, and key electoral promises, such as the debt brake, were already scrapped before he even took office.
Brinkert observed that the 2025 federal election highlighted a trend where all democratic parties fielded candidates who were neither broadly popular nor widely wanted at that time, suggesting that the fringe elements have strengthened. He stated that Merz was elected as a figure of change, but now he must prove that compromise does not equate to a loss of direction, but rather to leadership. Brinkert stressed that it must become clear what objectives this government is fighting for and where it intends to guide the country. To succeed, the government requires a narrative of progress that allows it to become a driving force and pathfinder for a Germany comeback.
