A growing consensus within Germany’s energy sector is signaling a profound shift away from natural gas infrastructure, raising questions about the long-term viability of existing networks and potentially disrupting ambitious climate targets. A recent survey conducted by consultancy Horváth, encompassing 91 energy providers, reveals a significant erosion of confidence in the possibility of transitioning gas operations to a climate-neutral future. A staggering 61% of respondents now anticipate a decommissioning or shutdown of their gas grids by 2040.
This dramatic realignment contrasts sharply with previous industry stances, particularly during the contentious debates surrounding Germany’s Building Energy Act. Prior to this shift, many within the energy sector vocally cautioned against prematurely dismissing the value of Germany’s extensive 600,000-kilometer gas network, a system previously providing predictable revenue streams for its operators.
The survey underscores a profound change in strategic priorities. Two-thirds of the surveyed companies are now planning to at least double their investments in electricity storage, while nearly 70% intend to enter the energy storage business by 2028. This represents a definitive pivot away from gas and towards alternative energy solutions.
The decline of natural gas is being driven by a confluence of factors. Rising carbon dioxide prices are increasing the cost of natural gas and both the German government and the European Union are actively seeking to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. The prospect of converting existing gas pipelines to transport hydrogen, previously championed as a potential solution, now appears increasingly unrealistic; the survey indicates that only 4% of respondents believe this transition will ultimately be viable.
This accelerating shift raises critical questions regarding the social and economic implications of dismantling a vast infrastructure network. While the move towards renewable energy and energy storage offers new opportunities, the planned decommissioning of gas grids necessitates careful planning and significant investment to mitigate potential disruptions and ensure a just transition for affected workers and communities. The industry’s reassessment exposes vulnerabilities in Germany’s energy strategy and calls for a renewed focus on managing the complexities of phasing out a critical energy source while simultaneously achieving ambitious climate goals.
