German manufacturing orders surged in November 2025, defying persistent concerns about a broader economic slowdown, according to preliminary data released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The real volume of incoming orders rose a substantial 5.6% compared to October, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. While large-scale orders significantly contributed to this impressive gain, stripping them out reveals a more modest, yet still positive, increase of 0.7% from the previous month.
The three-month comparison (September to November) paints a similar picture of resilience, with overall orders up 4.0% and those excluding large orders climbing 2.1%. A revision of October’s data demonstrated a stronger-than-initially reported 1.6% increase compared to September, revising a prior estimate of 1.5%.
The driving force behind November’s performance appears concentrated in specific high-value sectors. A particularly noteworthy jump occurred in the production of metal products (+25.3%) and the specialized ‘Other Transport Equipment’ category, encompassing aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles, which saw a remarkable rise of 12.3%, heavily influenced by substantial and potentially politically sensitive, orders. Moderate gains across electrical equipment, mechanical engineering and the production of data processing and optical equipment further bolstered the overall result.
Breaking down order categories reveals nuanced trends. Investment goods saw a significant increase of 7.9% compared to October, while intermediate goods rose more moderately at 1.0% and consumer goods jumped by 8.2%. The strength in investment goods, though encouraging, warrants deeper analysis to determine whether it reflects genuine long-term confidence or a surge in procurement driven by specific, potentially temporary, factors.
Export orders contributed significantly to the overall positive momentum, increasing by 4.9%. Demand from within the Eurozone saw a stronger uptick, rising 8.2%, compared to a 2.9% increase from countries outside the currency bloc. Domestic orders also performed well, climbing 6.5%. The divergence in growth rates between Eurozone and non-Eurozone demand could signal shifting trade patterns and potentially highlights Germany’s continuing reliance on the European market.
Furthermore, Destatis reported a real increase of 2.7% in manufacturing turnover for November compared to October, albeit a marginal year-on-year increase of 0.1% when adjusted for calendar variations. The upward revision of October’s turnover data to 0.4% – moving up from a previously estimated 0.3% – provides a slightly more optimistic view of recent economic activity.
However, the pronounced influence of large orders and specific, strategically important sectors raises questions about the breadth of this growth. Critics argue that the reliance on a few high-value and often politically sensitive areas – particularly military equipment – makes the German manufacturing sector vulnerable to shifts in global geopolitical dynamics and policy changes. A more sustainable and broadly-based recovery will require a deeper examination of underlying demand and a reduction in dependence on these concentrated drivers. The government will likely face pressure to assess how these trends impact long-term industrial strategy and potential trade risks.
