Germany’s population is projected to decline to 81 million people by 2045, according to a new population forecast released by the Institute of German Economics (IW) on Monday. This anticipated decrease is primarily attributed to falling immigration rates. In the most extreme scenario, the population could fall to nearly 77 million, while the upper limit remains around 85 million.
This represents a notable shift from the IW’s previous 2024 forecast, which had anticipated moderate growth until 2040. The latest figures suggest that Germany will have significantly fewer inhabitants than previously estimated. Furthermore, the number of people in the working-age bracket between 15 and 67 is expected to shrink by approximately 8.3 percent by 2045, reaching about 50 million. Simultaneously, the population aged over 67 is projected to rise from 17 to 20.4 million people.
For many decades, more people have passed away in Germany than are born. In 2025, the surplus of deaths was 350,000. The population had not shrunk for a long time due to net immigration-more people were entering the country than leaving. However, recent policy shifts regarding migration and only moderately increasing skilled labor migration have changed the situation. In 2025, only 250,000 people entered Germany compared to those who left. Consequently, the population decreased by 100,000 residents.
IW economist Philipp Deschermeier warned that both the job market and social security systems could face earlier and more intense pressure than currently feared. He noted that a shrinking population also lowers the economic potential growth, and the issue of pension funds will become a deeper crisis with 20 million retirees. Deschermeier advised that policymakers must ease the immigration of skilled workers, suggesting measures such as faster visa procedures and simpler recognition of foreign qualifications.
