Germany’s retail sector demonstrated a seemingly robust performance in 2025, with real turnover increasing by 2.4% and nominal turnover by 3.6% compared to 2024, according to preliminary estimates released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). However, a closer examination reveals a more complex and potentially concerning picture, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth and the underlying economic forces at play.
The initial surge in the first half of 2025 (+3.8% real increase) was significantly skewed by a one-off event: the integration of previously unrecorded sales figures stemming from a major restructuring within the online and mail-order retail sector in August 2024. This statistical anomaly inflated the early growth figures, masking a subsequent marked slowdown in the second half of the year (+1.1% real increase) and casting doubt on the overall picture of sustained consumer spending.
November 2025 witnessed a preliminary decline in retail sales – real turnover down 0.6% and nominal turnover down 1.1% compared to October. This contraction, while partially offset by a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and 1.9% respectively, suggests a cooling of consumer demand following the earlier, artificially boosted figures. The October data also underwent significant revisions – a 0.3% real increase replacing a previously reported -0.3% – highlighting the ongoing statistical uncertainties surrounding the sector’s performance. The revisions are attributed in part to the impact of a recently implemented sampling methodology change, further complicating the analysis.
A notable divergence emerged within the sector itself. Food retailers experienced a significant real downturn in November (-1.9% compared to the previous month), although year-on-year figures showed a modest real increase of 0.1%. This suggests consumers are increasingly scrutinizing essential spending, potentially reflecting broader inflationary pressures despite government efforts to mitigate their impact. Conversely, non-food retailers recorded a real increase, albeit more modest, suggesting a shift in spending towards discretionary items.
The online and mail-order sector continues to be a source of growth, reporting a robust 5.9% real increase in turnover year-on-year for November. While this exemplifies the ongoing shift towards digital retail, it also raises questions about the impact on brick-and-mortar stores and the long-term viability of traditional retail models. This digital dominance, coupled with the statistical distortions observed in the broader retail data, underscores the need for a more nuanced understanding of the German economy’s consumer landscape and the effectiveness of governmental policies intended to stabilize and promote genuine sectoral growth. The reliance on one-off restructuring events to sustain positive growth figures points to potential fragility within the retail sector and warrants careful monitoring in future assessments.
