Germany’s Federal Criminal Office (BKA) is grappling with a rapidly escalating threat landscape characterized by a surge in suspicious drone flights across the nation, potentially reaching into the thousands by December 2025, according to a newly released internal threat assessment. BKA President Holger Münch, in an interview with Bild, described the situation as presenting a “distinct hazard” highlighting a situation demanding urgent attention and resource allocation.
The BKA has initiated a comprehensive “threat situation report” – a centralized database incorporating data from suspected incidents including collaboration with the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces). Preliminary figures already indicate over 1,000 reported suspicious drone operations this year alone. Critical infrastructure, including military installations, airports, arms manufacturers and port facilities, have been the primary targets.
While definitively attributing the flights remains challenging, Münch cautioned against simplistic explanations. Pressed on whether the incidents were linked to Russian actors, he stated that absolute certainty was lacking, citing the difficulty in identifying and interrogating drone operators. However, he strongly suggested a pattern of what he termed “obviously state-sponsored operations” explicitly designed to sow “uncertainty” among the German populace. “Following such operations, we observe a significant spike in reported incidents and heightened public anxiety” Münch explained.
Beyond simply creating unease, the BKA also acknowledges a potential intelligence-gathering motive. While acknowledging the availability of satellite surveillance, Münch emphasized its limitations, particularly in scenarios involving highly localized activity. He raised a chilling possibility: the use of drones to identify and catalogue mobile devices, specifically smartphones, potentially belonging to Ukrainian soldiers undergoing training in Germany. This data, the BKA fears, could then be exploited to track and potentially identify individuals involved in the conflict. The implications for German-Ukrainian military cooperation and the security of training facilities are profound, underscoring the need for a comprehensive review of counter-drone measures and intelligence gathering protocols. The escalating nature of this threat demands a critical assessment of Germany’s preparedness and a deeper understanding of the actors behind these increasingly sophisticated operations.
