The German federal government is at risk of missing its legally mandated intermediate climate target for 2030, even after the recent ruling by the Federal Administrative Court. This assessment comes from a draft of the 2026 Climate Protection Programme, reported by the “Politico” newsletter “Energie und Klima” on Monday.
The draft states that, given current climate‑policy tools and the assumed conditions, it is not foreseeable that all sectors will achieve the transformation to greenhouse‑gas (GHG) neutrality. In 2021 the Federal Constitutional Court had ruled that Article 20a of the Basic Law obliges the state to create climate neutrality and that protecting future freedom requires a timely transition to this goal. In response, the federal climate‑protection law was tightened, imposing annual maximum emission limits for GHGs as the court demanded in order to reach intermediate targets. The latest decision from the Federal Administrative Court reinforces that all necessary measures must be stipulated in the mandatory climate‑protection programmes to ensure compliance with the interim goals.
According to the draft 2026 programme, the GHG projections for 2025 indicate a 63 % reduction in emissions by 2030. While a 65 % target appears theoretically attainable, an assessment by the expert council on climate matters included in the draft suggests it is “probably unlikely” to be achieved. The main obstacles lie in the transport and building sectors. The draft shows that both sectors exceed their 2030 targets: transport emissions are projected to be 169 million tonnes of CO₂‑equivalent above the set value, while the building sector would be 110 million tonnes above the goal.
Beyond 2030, the German climate objectives remain jeopardised. The draft warns that the aim of net‑zero GHG emissions by 2045 risks being missed again, with projected residual emissions estimated at 204 million tonnes of CO₂‑equivalent in 2045 according to the 2025 data.
The federal climate‑protection programme requires that the government adopt a new climate programme within twelve calendar months of the start of a legislative period. Environmental Minister Carsten Schneider (SPD) announced that the 2026 programme would be presented in March. The programme will outline the federal climate balance and must contain every measure necessary to reach the 2030 and 2040 targets, as well as the year‑by‑year goals from 2031 to 2040.
