The upcoming visit by German Foreign Minister Johannes Rau to China is being cautiously viewed as a potential reset in relations, according to Mikko Huotari, Director of the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). Huotari’s assessment, shared with the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, highlights a concerted effort to re-establish a baseline of diplomatic normalcy between the two nations – a necessity, he argues, for states of their respective stature.
The fragile nature of this endeavor is underscored by the preceding visit of German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, which Huotari believes served to partially repair earlier strains. However, the abrupt cancellation of Rau’s trip in October, prompted by what were deemed inadequate conditions set by Beijing, points to a deepening dynamic. Huotari acknowledges the rationale behind the cancellation, but underscores a critical challenge for Germany: China’s increasing tendency to dictate the terms of engagement. This realization, he suggests, only truly sunk in within the German government until recently.
MERICS Director Huotari stresses the importance of a nuanced and measured approach to communication with China. He cautions against a strategy of aggressive rhetoric yielding minimal practical results. Examining the recent visits of French President Emmanuel Macron and Vice-Chancellor Klingbeil reveals a tentative pattern: a softening of tone and a constructive dialogue appear to be prerequisites for even securing basic access and engagement in Beijing. Crucially, Huotari questions whether this improved access will translate into substantive progress.
The desire for “fewer disturbances” from China is, according to Huotari, undeniable, signifying a recognition within Beijing that the previous confrontational style has yielded diminishing returns. However, the core question remains: whether this perceived shift in Chinese preference for smoother relations will be accompanied by a genuine willingness to compromise and address the underlying issues that have complicated the Germany-China relationship. The success of Rau’s upcoming visit, therefore, hinges on navigating a delicate balance – maintaining a firm stance on principles while acknowledging Beijing’s increasingly assertive influence over the terms of engagement.
