The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs appears to have modeled several scenarios for potentially easing the burden on citizens regarding energy prices. According to the Mediengruppe Bayern, an internal document titled “Iran Crisis: Alternative Scenarios of Possible Overall Economic Impacts on the Euro Area and Germany” shows that the office of Katherina Reiche (CDU) prefers relief measures that are as targeted as possible.
The analysis suggests that lowering the electricity tax for all consumers would result in an “untargeted relief effect”. This same criticism applies to an “energy price lump sum” or a “fuel discount”. Reducing the value-added tax on fuels to seven percent is also labeled “untargeted”.
The study generally uses “Pro” “Neutral” and “Contra” arguments. However, the accounts note that only “Contra” arguments are frequently listed. Furthermore, the analysis fails to find any “Pro” argument for suspending the CO2 price or the truck toll, or for setting a price cap on gasoline. Similarly, there are no supporting arguments for lowering the vehicle tax, indicating the Reiche office is against such measures. The estimated cost for an energy price lump sum, similar to the one implemented in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine, was quantified at 20 billion euros.
One measure that recently garnered approval from Reiche, according to the document, is a temporary increase in the commuter allowance. Under the “Pro” section, it is noted that this has a “targeted relief effect for commuting professionals, but not according to mode of mobility or income”. Despite this, there is a concern regarding “delayed effect and visibility”.
