Germany Records Significantly Lower Mortality Rates in Q3 2025, Reflecting Broader European Trends
Preliminary data released Tuesday by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reveal a notable decline in mortality rates across Germany during the third quarter of 2025. Roughly 228,000 deaths were recorded, marking a decrease compared to the average figures from the preceding four years. July witnessed a one percent reduction, followed by three percent in August and a four percent drop in September.
This unexpected decrease arrives against a backdrop of historical volatility influenced by extreme weather events and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the summer months of previous years have frequently been marred by heatwaves or pandemic-related surges in mortality, 2025 largely avoided such disruptive factors. A brief, localized spike (+5%) did occur in late June/early July during a heatwave, a predictable consequence acknowledged in previous years’ data.
The broader European picture, as observed by the EuroMomo network – a system tracking mortality trends – largely mirrors Germany’s experience. EuroMomo’s calculations, based on incomplete reports and their own excess mortality model, indicate that the majority of European nations experienced mortality rates aligned with expected trends during Q3 2025. However, Portugal, Spain, Denmark and Switzerland registered minor instances of “low excess” mortality on a weekly basis. The Iberian nations, notably, also recorded a “moderate excess” of mortality in early July coinciding with a period of intense heat.
The divergence in outcomes across Europe, despite largely favorable conditions, raises questions about the potential influence of factors beyond simple weather patterns. Variations in healthcare accessibility, age demographics and pre-existing health conditions could all play a role. Furthermore, the continued monitoring of EuroMomo data remains crucial, particularly concerning the localized, albeit moderate, increases observed in the Iberian peninsula, highlighting the ongoing vulnerability of certain populations to climate-related health risks. The comparatively positive outcome in Germany, while encouraging, should not diminish the ongoing need for proactive public health strategies aimed at mitigating the impacts of future extreme events and ensuring equitable access to healthcare across the continent.
