Germany faces a looming demographic crisis, according to projections released this week by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The 16th coordinated population forecast paints a stark picture of a rapidly aging society and a shrinking workforce, raising serious questions about the nation’s economic stability and social safety nets.
By 2035, nearly a quarter of the German population will be aged 67 or older, a significant increase from the current rate. This shift is driven by the ongoing retirement of the Baby Boomer generation, replaced by considerably smaller subsequent cohorts. The number of individuals aged 67 and over is projected to reach between 20.5 and 21.3 million by 2038, an increase of 3.8 to 4.5 million since today.
The implications for the labor market are particularly concerning. Currently, there are 33 individuals in retirement for every 100 in the workforce. This ratio is expected to worsen dramatically, potentially reaching 61 by 2070 in a scenario with persistently low birth rates and limited net immigration. Such a ratio would effectively halve the number of contributors supporting those in retirement, placing immense strain on the nation’s social security system. The forecast anticipates a decline in the working-age population (20-66 years) from 51.2 million in 2024 to a projected 45.3 million by 2070, even with moderate immigration. In a low-immigration scenario, this figure could fall to just 37.1 million.
The aging trend is not uniform across the country. While Western Germany might see population stability under certain conditions, Eastern Germany faces a steeper decline, with projections indicating a 14% to 30% decrease in population by 2070. City-states like Berlin and Hamburg are the exception, potentially experiencing growth with high levels of immigration, although even they could see a decline with limited new arrivals. The East also begins with a significantly older population structure, exacerbating the challenges.
Beyond the overall population decline, the rise in the number of individuals requiring care is another critical concern. With half of those over 80 currently needing care and that number expected to climb from 6.1 million in 2024 to between 8.5 and 9.8 million by 2050, the pressure on the healthcare system and caregiver resources will be immense.
The latest projections are even more pessimistic than previous forecasts, largely attributed to lower-than-expected net immigration rates and birth rates in recent years. The question now is whether policymakers will implement effective measures-including incentives for higher birth rates, increased immigration policies and structural reforms to the social security system-to mitigate the consequences of this demographic downturn and secure Germany’s future prosperity. The long-term implications necessitate a fundamental reassessment of social and economic policies.
