Global inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near and medium term, according to a recent survey conducted by the Ifo Institute. The study, released today, indicates that economists anticipate a global inflation rate of 4.0 percent on average for 2025, consistent with expectations from the previous quarter.
For Germany, forecasts remain stable at 2.4 percent for 2025, decreasing slightly to 2.3 percent for 2026 and 2028. “Inflation expectations have stabilized at a high level, both in the short term and with a view to the coming years” stated Ifo researcher Philipp Heil. Experts attribute a significant driver of this persistent inflation to ongoing trade conflicts and the imposition of import tariffs.
The survey projects a global average of 3.9 percent for 2026 and 3.7 percent for 2028, suggesting a stagnation of long-term expectations at relatively high levels.
Regional disparities are notable. West European inflation expectations are forecasted at 1.8 percent for 2025, falling below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of two percent. In contrast, Eastern Europe and Asian countries are predicted to experience considerably higher rates. Economists foresee an increase in US inflation from 3.1 percent this year to 3.7 percent in 2025, largely attributed to tariffs imposed by the US government on imported goods. The highest inflation rates are anticipated across much of Africa, with some regions potentially exceeding 20 percent.
The survey, conducted between June 17th and July 1st, 2025, included responses from 1,340 economic experts across 121 countries.
