Experts expect that the rising wholesale gas prices triggered by the war in Iran will reach many district‑heating customers only with a delay. “It ultimately depends on how the heat is produced on site” said Florian Munder, an energy specialist with the German Consumer Association (VZBV), to “Spiegel”. “Some networks are already largely free of fossil fuels, which is advantageous in the current crisis”.
Many district heating operators can raise prices only once a year, or only half‑or quarter‑ly in certain cases. “Until the high wholesale costs filter down to the end customers, it can take a long time” Munder explained. Large suppliers typically rely on an index from the Federal Statistical Office that looks at fuel costs over a longer horizon. “Smaller operators, however, use exchange‑based indices that better capture short‑term price shocks” the consumer advocate added.
The industry trade group AGFW confirms that gas‑market tensions can affect fossil‑fuel powered heating plants as well. The impact depends on how far in advance a supplier purchases gas. After Russia’s attack on Ukraine, district heating was at first one of the relatively inexpensive heating options; the high gas prices only impacted customers after a lag.
“Even with the latest developments, a similar pattern seems plausible” said AGFW CEO Werner Lutsch, also speaking to “Spiegel”. “District heating will likely remain comparatively price‑stable at first, with any price increases becoming effective only after a delay”.
