Russia is expected to see substantial extra revenue from its commodity trade as a result of the war in Iran, according to an economic impact assessment conducted by the KSE Institute of the Kyiv School of Economics, a story reported by “Spiegel”. Even in the optimistic scenario of a quick end to the conflict in the Gulf, higher oil and gas prices would generate roughly $84 billion in additional revenue for Russia, with direct Kremlin tax receipts rising by about $45 billion.
From the perspective of European security policy, the passage through the Strait of Hormuz must be restored as quickly as possible, regardless of the circumstances, said study author Benjamin Hilgenstock to “Spiegel”. Hilgenstock is an economist and director of the KSE Center for Geo‑economics.
If the war drags on, Russia’s earnings could climb even higher. Should fighting cease at the end of May, projected revenues would reach $161.3 billion and tax receipts would increase by $97 billion. If the conflict were to persist for six months, Russia could collect a total of $252.4 billion more than it would have without the Iran war, with tax revenues up by $151 billion.
